The standard deviation effect (or why one should sit first base playing blackjack)

摘要

For a balanced cardcounting system we study the random variable of the truecount after a number of cards are removed from the remaining deck and we provea close formula for its standard deviation. As expected, the formula shows thatthe standard deviation increases with the number of cards removed. This createsa "standard deviation effect" with a two fold consequence: longer long run andpresumably larger fluctuations of the bankroll, but a small gain in playingaccuracy for the player sitting third base. The opposite happens for the playersitting first base. Thus the optimal position in casino blackjack in terms ofshorter long run is first base.